With Control of the Senate in Play, These Are the Races to Watch
With the Senate tied 50-50 for each party, Republican control is just one seat away. But this election season has been full of surprises.
For much of the campaign season, Democrats appeared poised to win a Republican seat in Pennsylvania, meaning Republicans would have to flip two Democratic seats to gain a majority. But recent mistakes by Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Georgia and Arizona have made finding those two winnable races more difficult.
Here are the seats where each party is vulnerable.
Cook Political Reporting Race Ratings
for current Senate seats
republicans
It currently has 50 seats, it needs 51 for the majority
Democrats
Currently holds the majority with 50 seats (Vice President casts a tie-breaking vote)
Republicans are not for re-election
R solid
R likely
lean r
Tossup
Democrats are not for re-election
Solid D
lean d
Tossup
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
NORTH CAROLINA
ooh
Utah
Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
AI
ID
IN
Kansas
Kentucky
THE
month
NORTH DAKOTA
okay
okay
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Dakota
Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
AI
ID
IN
Kansas
Kentucky
THE
ME
month
MS
MS
MOUNTAIN
NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH DAKOTA
northeast
northeast
SOUTH CAROLINA
South Dakota
Tennessee
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Utah
W.V
WY
WY
Georgia
Snowfall
Arizona
CO
N.H
California
Connecticut
HELLO
ILLINOIS
Maryland
New York
EITHER
Vermont
Washington
Arizona
California
CO
Connecticut
Delaware
Delaware
Georgia
HELLO
ILLINOIS
BREAST
BREAST
Maryland
ME
ME
ME
Minnesota
Minnesota
MOUNTAIN
N.H
New Jersey
New Jersey
New Mexico
New Mexico
Snowfall
New York
ooh
EITHER
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Rhode Island
Virginia
Virginia
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
W.V
Republicans are not for re-election
Democrats are not for re-election
Cook Political Report still calls the race a failure, but the new allegations have given Warnock an advantage and put Walker on the defensive.
A Democratic seat in Arizona it may have been vulnerable at some point. But the enduring popularity of incumbent Mark Kelly and the faltering campaign of his rival, Blake Masters, may put him out of reach for Republicans.
But his Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general, lost his gubernatorial bid in 2018 and still doesn’t have a clear lead.
His opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, suffered a life-threatening stroke that gave Dr. Oz a break. The apparent effects of the stroke and the Republican’s attacks on Fetterman as a liberal who coddles criminals have curtailed his career.
Democrats had high hopes of unseating the Republican senator from WisconsinRon Johnson six years ago and were stunned by his relatively easy re-election. Since then, Johnson has become the leading peddler of conspiracy theories and misinformation about Covid-19 in the Senate, but he is holding his own against Wisconsin Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, who hails from the liberal Democrat wing and has shown be vulnerable to attack, especially on crime
Cheri Beasley, former Chief Justice of North Carolina, is running for justice above the political fray. North Carolina is a state that has broken the hearts of Democrats and may well do so again. But Mr. Budd and Mrs. Beasley are always tied in the polls.
Despite the challenges ahead, Republicans still have plenty of ways to win control of the Senate. They could beat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada and push Sen. Raphael Warnock into a runoff in Georgia. They could overwhelm the Georgia race with cash to bail out Warnock’s opponent, Herschel Walker. They could also pull off a win from behind in Pennsylvania.
But Democrats also have options. If they can seal a win in Pennsylvania and defeat Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, it’s hard to see a way for the Republicans to pick up three Democratic seats to compensate.